Happy New Year!

I wanted to reach out and thank all of you for another tremendously successful year.  Thanks to an abundance of caution over the past five years our overall portfolio is still seeing only a 5% default rate.  Given the rising interest rate environment that is about as good as anyone could hope for in this industry.

Each of you has your own investment philosophy and know what has worked for you historically so I will only speak for myself personally.  Seeing as the stock market is showing tremendous volatility, higher-end real estate has slowed and the Fed is yet to pull back on their interest rate hike plans, I will be exercising even greater caution and allocating a larger percentage of my portfolio to cash in 2019, much the same as I did in 2018.

I still strongly feel that First Trust Deed investing is the greatest risk/reward investment vehicle I've even seen but we remain at the mercy of numerous macroeconomic factors which cannot be ignored.  I wouldn't say a recession is necessarily imminent but there are plenty of signs to make is seem as if the ground is shaking.  All that being said I think we're equipped to handle the next downturn as well as pretty much anyone.

At the end of the day our financial well-being is secondary to our physical health and family-life so I wish each of you and your families a successful, healthy and personally enriching 2019.

Entering the New Year...

I just wanted to let you all know that I'll not be rolling over most of my personal Trust Deed investments and increasing my cash allocation as they payoff during the next 12 months barring any ultra conservative loan leads we come across.  I think we are almost certainly seeing the peak in the stock market and with the Fed hiking interest rates I think we are well overdue for a correction.  I have more faith in the RE market but I think we can all see it is overvalued too.

Of course you will do whatever you feel is best with your personal finances and I'll be here to assist however possible.  In my view, it's starting to feel like 2006 and I'd be surprised if we have more than a year or two left with this Fed fueled cheap-money bull market before we correct.  I doubt it will be on the 2008-09 scale but I still feel that having some dry powder to buy stocks, RE, Notes at depressed prices will be a once in a decade+ opportunity.  

Just something for you to mull over.

2017 4th Quarter Update

Optimism abounds but loan opportunities dwindle, that has been the trend for three years now and it has only worsened in 2017.  The real estate market lacks inventory and prices continue to climb fairly quickly month over month.  As such it is my feeling that the value or profit to be found in real estate investing is lower than it has been in many many years.  We must proceed with caution.

There has also been significant interest rate depression because of new competitors in the market which are utilizing hedge fund money to offer extremely low interest rates in the hard money arena.  They have access to cheap capital which allows them to offer 6-8% interest rates, far below the historical hard money norms of 9-12%.  In the long run I believe this will be disastrous and that is why we will not reduce our interest rate demands to try and compete.  During the next inevitable recession they will likely take significant losses and since they are receiving conservative interest rates of return they will not have earned much profit to offset the potential losses.  For the sake of our investors I am trying to avoid that trap.

As a company we have had to turn away numerous new investor inquiries and now also have a significant waiting list for our current investors to deploy capital.  This is far from ideal but in this investment environment I continue to believe that sitting on cash is far safer than pursuing sub-optimal Trust Deed opportunities.  Your patience is appreciated, in time the market should normalize and when it finally does we'll be here to assist full speed once again.

2016 Mid-Year: A Quick Update

My market prognosis hasn’t changed dramatically since last writing to you.  The rapid market gains have largely slowed (at least locally) and we are still tremendously endangered via record low interest rates.  Cap rates have continued to decline leaving real estate investors nowhere to turn in this wild “where the heck can I make a decent return?” world.  At this point you can barely break-even on multifamily property purchases and you are betting solely on appreciation if you look to buy a single-family rental property.  From where I sit that means we’re much closer to a market top than a market bottom.

For friends and family I continue to recommend patience and extreme caution with any new real estate acquisitions.  I truly believe the risks outweigh the rewards in this current market environment.  That being said, I’ve advised exactly that for the past two years and the market has continued to appreciate, albeit slower than the break-neck pace of 2011-14.  Advising rational thought in an irrational world can make you look foolish.  In time I’m confident my suspicions will be proven correct but in the meantime I can expect some frowning loved ones.  I’ll take a frown over tears any day!

2015 U.S. Market Trends

I read as much as I can get my hands on early each year, trying to decipher the future economic changes we are likely to experience in the next 12-24 months and beyond.  As unknowable as we all understand the future to be I often wonder why I even try, but every year sure enough I find myself doing it yet again.  The one thing I've learned without a doubt?: A lot of smart people feel a lot of different ways about the future of our economy and most of them will be wrong!

With that being said, here is my educated guess at our future market conditions over the coming few years.  Please don't hold me to it...

Homeownership rates in CA are at their lowest levels in recent history thanks to high prices and a failure of Gen X/Y incomes to keep up with market prices.  Not to mention the real estate collapse in 2008-09 which still has many people terrified of making the leap.  This can be read two ways: either this huge portion of our population is going to rent for the majority of their lives or there is a tremendous pent-up demand for starter homes that will only be filled when their incomes rise or the market falls.  Interest rates are still near all-time lows so affordability in terms of monthly payments isn't really the issue.  In my opinion it's sticker shock, for a young family making $50-80K/year the idea of buying a 'starter' home for $400K+ is pretty daunting regardless of the monthly carrying cost.  Not to mention they just watched their Baby Boomer parents get hammered by the real estate collapse right as they were planning for retirement.  You can't really blame them for opting to rent instead of buy.

We can't really know when they'll come off the sidelines but the way I view it, we don't have to. What's important from an investing stand point is to know that there are a lot of buyers on the sidelines that will engage if and when prices get to a level they can act upon.  I view this as a tremendous buoy to our local market that puts a floor on pricing somewhere above the lows of 2008-2010.  For those investing in First Trust Deeds at 70% or less of today's market, as I do, this is a very supportive data point.

However, when it comes to today's real estate market there is probably no factor more important than interest rates.  Conventional lenders, saddled up next to the Federal Reserve's discount Window, are able to offer loans at mind-numbingly low interest rates.  Additionally, low interest rates mean increased purchasing power. In other words, you can buy more house with less monthly cost.  In my view this has been the biggest driver to our market recovery the past few years.  In most areas of Southern CA we saw prices bounce upwards of 40-50% from the lows of 2010.  This was accomplished without a matching increase in median incomes and most people still unwilling or unable to buy, so in my view it was a bit of a smoke and mirrors game.  The fundamentals for that massive jump were not really there, so lately we've seen price appreciation stabilize and flatten in most areas.  Personally I believe this is a good thing. If we continued to see the same appreciation of 10%+ per annum we would be setting ourselves up for a repeat of the last market collapse.   The market may have some downward cycles in front of itself but barring a large spike in interest rates I hope the 40-50% declines we experienced 6-7 years ago are not in the cards moving forward near-term.

The last factor I'll mention is the strengthening dollar against other foreign currencies.  Despite the Feds best efforts to spur meaningful inflation at home, most of the rest of the world's central banks are matching those efforts and winning the war and the dollar is appreciating accordingly.  Right or wrong, the rest of the world still believes we are a safe haven and as such they are willing to invest not only in our stock market but also in our Bonds and Treasury Bills which helps drive down interest rates on mortgages.  I don't see this trend reversing anytime soon, and a strengthening dollar will hurt the multinational corporations in our stock market that derive a large portion of their profits from selling their products in foreign markets.  This is a complicated topic that I'm still trying to hash out but it will undoubtedly affect our stock market and real estate market moving forward so I'd recommend we all keep our eyes open to it as it develops.

2015 predictions if I had to make one:

U.S. Stock Market will underperform.

U.S. Real Estate will also see declines. Most likely this will be less severe than the stock market.

There are so many factors that go into setting market prices, in turn making grand scale predictions a fool's errand of the highest order. I haven't made any mention of oil prices, potential global conflicts, our political turmoil, the imminent retirement of the Boomer Generation, black swan events, etc.  All of that being said, in order to plan our investment future and fine-tune our investment philosophy, I feel it is important to have some macro and micro-economic evaluation methods to help guide us.  I can only hope this post helps spur some of you to think a little more deeply about what you are investing in and why.

Like the post?  Please feel free to 'share' with friends using the button on the bottom right or comment below!  If I can be of any help in your journey I'm always an email away: Clint@AAAPrivateMoney.com